Two data points landed together this month and they explain each other. On the Joshua Schall podcast, the figure making the rounds is that adult non-alcoholic drinks have crossed one billion dollars in US retail sales, while 94 percent of the people buying them still purchase alcohol. And in its H2 2026 outlook, Southern Glazer's, the largest US distributor, argued that moderation increasingly expands drinking occasions rather than simply replacing alcohol consumption, naming no-and-low alongside RTDs, wine cocktails, smaller formats, and premium as areas of growth.
Put plainly: the alcohol-free shopper is not, for the most part, a former drinker who quit. They are a current drinker who is adding a Tuesday night, a work lunch, a first round, or a school-night dinner where they would rather be clear-headed. The same person buys a six-pack on Saturday and a non-alcoholic one on Wednesday. That is why the category can grow without the alcohol aisle having to shrink first.
The Cr(af)ted Take
The 94 percent reads like a knock only if you assume alcohol-free is supposed to be a replacement. It is not, and pretending otherwise has always made the category sound smaller and more oppositional than it is. The honest framing is expansion: these drinks create new moments to make something good, moments that used to default to soda, water, or nothing. A person does not need to stop drinking for an alcohol-free Negroni to earn a place in their week.
This is the single most important thing for anyone making, selling, or serving these drinks to internalize. You are not fighting beer and wine for a fixed pie; you are building occasions that did not have a grown-up option before. It reframes the whole pitch, from guilt and subtraction to pleasure and addition, and it is the reason the billion-dollar milestone is a floor, not a ceiling.
Original reporting: Southern Glazer's →